Summary
In late 2025 the titanium dioxide (TiO₂) market is undergoing a pronounced international realignment. Chinese export volumes have contracted, especially for sulfate-process grades, while policy instruments—particularly the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and anti-dumping duties—are reshaping trade flows. Industry players are turning their attention toward alternative markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, as traditional importers such as the EU and India tighten regulatory controls.
I. Export & Import Dynamics – China's Exports Under Pressure
Recent data indicate that China's TiO₂ exports remain under strain. For example, May 2025 tranalysis.com/Analysis/Index#item1?KeyWordID=1ea6f8b39ff44ad4becec20c63502df5&PublisherID=b3fac7dd-9156-424c-9843-193631ebb67b' target='_blank'>export volume was approximately 135,600 tons—a decline of 9.16 % YoY and 8.37 % MoM.The decline is more pronounced for sulfate‐process TiO₂ than for chloride‐process grades, as downstream demand for high-end coatings and photovoltaic applications sustains the latter.Import dependence of higher-purity TiO₂ in China shows signs of easing, as capacity expansions are underway in domestic chloride‐process production.Global price indices for TiO₂ show regional divergence: for example, an October 2025 index reports that Northeast Asia's price increased about 1.1 % to US$1.78/kg, while Europe fell ~1.8 % to US$3.23/kg.
II. Policy & Market Pressures – CBAM and Other Regulatory Factors
The EU's CBAM is increasingly shaping TiO₂ trade. Although TiO₂ was not initially one of the earliest CBAM-covered products, the broader principle of embedded-emissions tariffs is prompting ripple effects.Separately, the EU imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on imports of TiO₂ from China in early 2025. These measures raise the cost and complexity of exporting to the EU market.As a result, Chinese producers face added cost burdens and margin pressure when supplying to Europe. Some companies are mitigating this via overseas lower-emission capacity or redirecting exports to non-EU regions.India remains a challenging export destination due to anti-dumping duties and shifting domestic capacity.
III. Strategic Moves & Market Shifts
With Europe's demand contracting under regulatory and trade-barrier pressure, Chinese TiO₂ producers are increasingly pivoting to growing markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa—a shift highlighted in recent trade-flow analyses.Amid heightened emissions scrutiny, some manufacturers are investing in lower-carbon production and overseas plants to preserve export competitiveness.Given structural capacity additions at home (China's capacity expected to surpass 7 million tpa if new projects complete) and weak export windows, local market absorption and downstream applications (e.g., in coatings, plastics) are becoming more critical.
IV. Outlook – What to Watch in Q4 & 2026
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Short-term (Q4 2025): Expect range-bound pricing with weak upward pressure, given trade and regulatory headwinds. Export volumes to traditional regions (EU, India) are likely to remain under pressure.
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Medium-term (2026): The trade map for TiO₂ is being redrawn. Regions less affected by CBAM or anti-dumping measures may capture increased share. Meanwhile, producers that invest in low-carbon, high-quality chloride-process TiO₂ may gain competitive advantage.
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Strategic takeaway: For exporters, early attention to compliance (emissions, certification, supply-chain transparency) is essential. For buyers, diversification of supply regions and close monitoring of trade-barrier risk will be key.
More detailed pricing data and regional insights are available in the CCM Vitamins & Minerals China Monthly Report.
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